Wednesday, February 1, 2012

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Why February Could Matter

I'm wondering if 3 attributes of the race as it stands right now are not becoming a bit neglected:

1. Turnout: The Romney-Gingrich slugfest in Florida appears to be have made slightly less than 1.7 million voters on this year's primary. That is down by about 12 % on the 1.94 million who voted in 2008. Not a superb sign for your GOP in this essential swing state, specially from a flat GOP turnout in Iowa simply a little uptick in Nh (also swing states). Both of such states have open primaries, so without any Democratic contest this year, in contrast to 2008, one could have expected an amazing start participation.

2. February: There is been your truthful quantity of commentary for the impact February will not matter much--it's a lull, a break in the action, etc. That is not too clear. February will discover 187 delegates chosen weighed against 115 in January's contests. Two dates in specific will matter: February 7, with caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado (40 and 36 delegates, respectively), and also a beauty contest major in Missouri as well; and February 28, with primaries in Michigan and Arizona (30 and 29 delegates).

3. Rick Santorum: There is lots of speculation about Gingrich's odds to mount a comeback against Romney, the clear frontrunner. But imagine if Newt's campaign collapses? What if he's merely jumped the shark using the "Holocaust survivors" robocall? (The letter charged the fact that former Massachusetts governor as soon as "vetoed a bill buying kosher food for seniors in nursing homes--Holocaust survivors, who for the first time, were expected to consume non-kosher, because Romney thought $5 was too much to spend for that grandparents to eat kosher.")

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